Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 71194.349793 75287.861050 79386.618252 83795.502075 88400.793792 93066.211080 98146.738569
2025-03-09 64505.989214 70766.638859 77218.028197 84353.106772 92013.450809 99980.922863 108884.536035
2025-03-16 59131.827143 66798.739556 74881.156342 84016.815147 94035.693602 104668.530095 116785.684702
2025-03-23 56041.952113 64860.972901 74333.788247 85232.792330 97392.529718 110507.551622 125687.768607
2025-03-30 53287.537784 63005.391593 73616.851508 86016.221001 100056.809444 115411.852770 133422.158666
2025-04-06 50552.025573 60953.882931 72484.214678 86147.579875 101827.786642 119190.047793 139796.457560
2025-04-13 48056.084449 59009.532014 71321.441932 86100.490983 103269.784238 122496.561849 145560.776639
2025-04-20 46597.130113 58165.038724 71331.140070 87318.731297 106094.829663 127331.537647 153047.045567
2025-04-27 45273.460452 57393.216349 71350.209480 88481.550869 108804.919318 132004.468970 160340.592197
2025-05-04 43759.705533 56312.055567 70932.110782 89064.032240 110783.177303 135794.720777 166595.642118
2025-05-11 42076.470608 54947.027437 70104.717260 89093.514240 112052.610397 138716.715265 171812.239320
2025-05-18 40616.095861 53789.913304 69469.496501 89300.519907 113490.544350 141808.739946 177217.682095
2025-05-25 39137.646108 52571.513312 68731.451835 89366.391685 114759.618548 144722.347552 182462.320759
2025-06-01 38314.456342 52140.987756 68936.250921 90570.597207 117407.764220 149302.025341 189740.875554
2025-06-08 36857.374602 50850.397459 68022.637137 90345.279332 118267.913554 151699.574050 194377.672474
2025-06-15 36216.373428 50576.766490 68359.889771 91663.011535 121025.808806 156410.695494 201851.337003
2025-06-22 35397.656157 50038.600908 68333.656989 92499.987911 123171.857638 160372.213192 208424.766631
2025-06-29 34316.262843 49117.144784 67783.208470 92640.594227 124421.729379 163217.777172 213627.581742
2025-07-06 33211.324052 48126.408434 67108.891207 92590.919755 125406.358994 165719.895900 218403.812323
2025-07-13 32735.603669 47956.510355 67484.310154 93883.035199 128093.710327 170354.099312 225859.100358
2025-07-20 32261.351268 47769.106890 67821.744285 95116.140728 130704.668046 174903.158636 233235.037771
2025-07-27 31561.098255 47249.751939 67700.877715 95733.758968 132514.614225 178444.000941 239359.168410
2025-08-03 30660.869869 46427.350421 67151.836876 95765.018648 133548.616188 180994.000383 244235.951203